Through 2021, CBO initially projects mortality rates to decrease at roughly the same average rate as in the previous decade (2008 to 2017). The agency then adjusts those initial projections to account for the additional deaths associated with the pandemic. Additional deaths include fatalities directly attributable to the coronavirus as well as increased fatalities attributable to heart disease, diabetes, pneumonia, and other respiratory illnesses. Additional deaths from causes other than the coronavirus may result from individuals delaying or not seeking treatment during the pandemic, or they may be directly attributable to the coronavirus but misclassified because of other underlying conditions. The increased number of additional deaths is partially offset by a decrease in the number of accidental deaths. For the remainder of the projection period, the agency expects a return to longer-run trends in mortality improvement, with mortality rates for each age group generally declining at the average pace experienced between 1950 and 2017.

After projecting average mortality rates for men and women in each age group, CBO incorporates differences in those rates for people age 30 or older on the basis of marital status, education, disability-insurance status, and lifetime household earnings (for people younger than 30, the mortality projections account for age and sex only). CBO projects lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy for people who are married, have more education, do not receive benefits through the Social Security Disability Insurance program, or are high earners.6

Changes in Projections of Mortality Since Last Year. CBO currently projects a higher mortality rate for all age groups in the near term and a lower rate of mortality improvement over the next three decades than it did last year. As a result, CBO projects 1.4 million (or 1.2 percent) more deaths over the next three decades than it projected last year. Higher mortality rates also contribute to shorter life expectancies than the agency projected last year.